On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) recovered from short-term losses and gained ground across the FX spectrum. Even yet, following the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for November surprised to the upside, investors are readjusting their positions and expectations, and gains are still slim and the charts are still erratic.
Canada provided very little noteworthy economic data on Friday, and the same is true for the upcoming week, with virtually nothing scheduled for the CAD until Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada (BoC) makes an appearance on Friday. BoC Governor Macklem is scheduled to talk at the Canadian Club of Toronto and then take questions from the audience.
In the wider foreign exchange market on Friday, the Canadian dollar is rising relative to all other major currencies, with the US dollar coming in close second.
Prior to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls, the US Dollar increased, but it later declined after the announcement.
The US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) for November exceeded forecasts on Friday, coming in just under 200K, much above the 180K estimate, and above October’s 150K showing.
All but four of the last twelve straight NFP announcements have had their numbers later revised downward. Only two of the four were changed to be higher; the two most recent prints are still above the red pen’s stroke.
The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan likewise performed significantly better than anticipated, coming in at 69.4, much higher than the predicted 62.0 and even higher than November’s reading of 61.3.
Markets will be watching to see what changes are made to the Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” of interest rate estimates. Next week comes US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation numbers as well as the Fed’s final Interest Rate Decision.
The price of crude oil has moderately recovered after falling for the majority of the week. After falling nearly 8% from Monday’s opening bids to $69.01 per barrel on Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has now rebounded to $71.50 per barrel on Friday.
The Canadian dollar, which is still down eight tenths of a percent against the US dollar from Monday’s open, is helped by a slight rebound in crude oil prices.
